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Résumé :
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The long-term population dynamics of wintering Buzzards and Kestrels were studied at two sites in Southwest Germany. At Lake Constance, the January populations were recorded at three 10 km2 study sites between 1968 and 2001. In addition, at two study sites vole density was estimated as number of holes per 100 m2 plot. At the area 'Donaumoos' east of Ulm the counts of Buzzard and Kestrel were made in a 20 km2 drained fen mire every January between 1980 and 2001. The wintering populations of Buzzard showed no linear trend at either study site. Rather, population size showed considerable between-year fluctuations (3-4 year cycles). Moreover, population size was significantly correlated with vole density. After 1991, however, the fluctuations of both wintering Buzzards and vole density suddenly disappeared. For Kestrel no considerable fluctuations in population size was observed at Lake Constance after 1973, but population size decreased significantly. In contrast, the Donaumoos population fluctuated considerably and showed a 3-4 year cycle. It is assumed that the disappearance of fluctuations at Lake Constance is the result of an increasing air temperature in January and a decreasing number of snow days after 1990. At the site 'Donaumoos' air temperature in January also increased but was still below 0degree C on average. This could explain why in Donaumoos both species still showed considerable population fluctuations.
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