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Résumé :
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Breeding numbers of the Eurasian Golden Plover at the southern border of its distribution range decreased dramatically in the 19(th) and 20(th) centuries as a result of extensive habitat losses. A few decades ago, the breeding population in western continental Europe contracted to two isolated remnant populations in Lower Saxony (Germany) and in North Denmark. The Lower Saxon population I which is the bigger of the two, still comprised 12 territorial pairs in 2003, whereof only four pairs started breeding. The long-observed decrease in breeding bird numbers did not slow (town. Thus, the German-Danish breeding population faces extinction more than ever. Based on the breeding bird numbers observed in Lower Saxony over the last three decades, on reproduction rates in Lower Saxon breeding areas, and reference data on mortality in adult and juvenile birds, a simulation model was developed to analyse prior population dynamics and to project population trends, On average. 0.44 chicks per pair fledged annually from 1999 to 2003. Shall this reproduction rate pursue, the Lower Saxon breeding population will decrease to below five pairs by 2016. A reproduction rate of 0.2 fledglings per pair, which was already,recorded-in, 2002 and 2003, or two severe winters in a row will reduce the breeding population to below five pairs in the next 5-6 years. To double Golden Plover numbers within the next ten years, we should keep the annual reproduction rate at the level of 0.9 chicks per pair. It seems possible, as 0.9 chicks per pair was exactly the mean reproduction rate in Lower Saxony in the period of 1993-1998. Losses took place primarily during the incubation and in the first two weeks of brooding, in the latest time mainly due to predation by Red Foxes Vulpes vulpes and clutch destruction caused by milling machines during peat excavation. The losses can be reduced by means of adequate protection measures (e.g. paling breeding areas with electric fences, providing nests with protection shrouds, intensive safeguarding of nests and young, and establishment of feeding sites in the breeding areas). The conservation of the German-Danish breeding population seems to be only possible, if the reproduction rate very soon becomes noticeably higher and can be secured for long.
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