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Résumé :
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The Federal authority for environmental conservation, i.e. "Bayerisches Landesamt fur Umweltschutz (LfU)" is developing environmental indicators in order to show environmental states and trends in such a way that they are understandable for politicians and the general public. In the field of environmental conservation three indicators are planned, one of which is to contain the population development of selected bird species. Two sub-indicators are preceded, containing selected bird species among others. The indices for each species were calculated from the proportion of the overall bavarian population to the target population sizes and a mean value for all species was calculated. To find the target values for 2010, Bavarian ornithologists were interviewed with the Delphi-technique. If the Bavarian target population sizes are achieved in 2010, the success will be 100%. Within the "selected species" indicator, the overall trend is a general decrease of populations from the beginning of the index (1950) to ca. 1980. The index is about 70% since, and fluctuates, not showing a positive trend for the target. In 1998/1999 the success was 73%. Some species of the "selected species" indicator like black and white stork, peregrine, Montagu's harrier show increases in population sizes, which is a pleasant and encouraging fact. Many species however still show negative trends. For the second sub-indicator, called "birds of wider countryside", targets for population densities (on 100 ha of suitable habitats in an average countryside) of about 60 bird species were determined. This sub-indicator shows a negative trend, based on the decrease of prevalent birds' populations, which are typical for arable land, meadows, settlements and forests in Bavaria.
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