| Titre : | Long-term changes in first arrival dates of migratory bird species in the Lech-Donau region, Bavaria |
| Auteurs : | Franz Bairlein, Auteur ; Friedrich Heiser, Auteur |
| Type de document : | Article |
| Dans : | Ornithologischer Anzeiger (53(1-2) DEC 2014) |
| Article en page(s) : | 1-21 |
| Résumé : | Climate change is not uniform but rather shows considerable regional variation. Consequently, migratory birds' responses to climate change also show regional variation. Here we report on changes in first arrival dates of 48 migratory species in the Lech-Donau region in southern Bavaria during 36 years between 1967 and 2002. Data were collected by F.H. each year between 1 March and 14 May, during which period he visited the study site on average 4.7 times/week. Data were analyzed using GAM-functions approach as well as linear trend analyses. In 23 of the 48 species significant linear trends were discovered of which 22 were negative, revealing a long-term advancement in spring arrival. Of the species with a change of at least one day per decade, 35 advanced (91.4 %), and only three species (Honey Buzzard, Common Tern, Tree Pipit) delayed their first arrival. Non-passerines and passerines did not differ, nor did short/medium distance European migrants and long-distance tropical migrants. The trophic guild showed no effect either. In 29 of the 48 species first arrival dates were related to climatic factors: in ten species the local temperature at the study site explained most of variation in first arrival, in seven species the temperature in southern France and in 10 species the temperature in southern Spain. The North Atlantic oscillation explained first arrival in only two species. A particular case emerged for the cuckoo: while the cuckoo did not advance arrival, one of its main host species, the Reed Warbler, advanced significantly, which may affect host species selection and breeding success. |
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