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Résumé :
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Trends in breeding numbers of 14 waders, terns and gulls are presented for two islands in the)Wismar Bay (western German Baltic Sea coast) for the period 1957-2004. In addition, for three wader and three tern species annual means of ringed chicks per breeding pair are shown. The analysis of trends in breeding bird numbers focuses especially on the role of predators. Except for Common Gulls Larus canus and Herring Gulls L. argentatus, predation by these species and Foxes Vulpes vulpes was identified as one of the prevailing limiting factors for the annual number of breeding pairs on both islands. The effects of predation varied among predator and prey species and were further modified by environmental factors like size of breeding habitat, predator density, reproduction status of predators, and availability of the preferred prey of each predator. Breeding numbers of Common Gulls and Herring Gulls were affected mainly by direct persecution by man and anthropogenic food supply. Increased predation caused insufficient I breeding success and decreasing numbers of breeding pairs for all species in Wismar Bay since the 1990s. This development was caused by an increase in overall fox density after the regional introduction of EU agriculture and rabies vaccination as well as by an increasing food shortage for Common Gulls and Herring Gulls during the breeding season (rape and grain cultivation instead of root crop breeding, as well as closing of sewage dumps and prohibition of trawl fishing in the western Baltic during summer). Several management measures are suggested to protect the remaining breeding stock of coastal water birds in the western Baltic.
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