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Résumé :
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Climate change has markedly affected the migratory and breeding behaviour of indigenous species since the 1950s, and has led to major changes of their breeding and wintering areas in some of them. In the south of Germany, and in Vorarlberg and northern Switzerland, these changes can easily be detected in Northern Lapwing: its breeding populations are in steady decline since 1988, and the large moulting concentrations have completely disappeared since 1990. The intensification of agricultural land use and the increase in predators have so far been discussed as the main causes for these declines.This paper discusses the effects of climate warming. There was a clear increase in average annual temperature in the study region in the past decades. This temperature rise leads to an earlier, faster and particularly denser growth of the ground vegetation, especially of the grasses. As a consequence, meadows become unsuitable as breeding and moulting sites of the Lapwing, but also for a range of other ground nesters, whose populations have declined by some 80% and more in the region of Lake Constance since the 1980s.It is hypothesised that the breeding areas of Lapwing will expand to the north towards the Arctic, while Central European areas will eventually be abandoned. In order to stop this development and to increase species diversity - including newly arriving species -, numerous "ecological islands" will have to be installed in our uniform and industrialised agricultural landscape. Our focus should not lie in the conservation of backward "museum landscapes", but rather in a species-rich future.
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