|
Résumé :
|
Numbers of Barn Swallows breeding in The Netherlands have declined strongly in the 20th century. Since the mid-1990s, the national breeding bird monitoring programme (bmp) has indicated a slow recovery (Fig. 3), but there have been doubts about the reliability of this trend as bmp relies on territory mapping which might not be an optimal method to monitor Barn Swallows. In 2011, volunteers repeated a survey of available and occupied nest sites in 59 2.5 x 2.5 km quadrats that were also surveyed in 1993, and found 23% more breeding swallows. A population model parameterised with data on breeding success and survival of Dutch Barn Swallows for (mainly) 1993-2008 (Tab. 1) predicted an annual population growth of 1.6%, which is in fairly good agreement with the 1.8% increase indicated by the bmp and the 1.1% increase found with the quadrat surveys. Multiple causes may drive this population recovery, for example the observed slight increase in the number of young produced per (first) clutch. Most notable was an 11-fold increase in the importance of horse stables as breeding sites, caused by increases in both the abundance of horse stables (fivefold, Fig. 4) and the mean number of nests per stable (twofold, Fig. 5). This reflects an increase in the number of horses held for hobby purposes, both in professional stables and by people living in the countryside. The population model also identified demographic parameters that have a large effect on changes in population size, like first-year survival (including post-fledging mortality), a parameter we have little information about.
|