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Résumé :
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Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors recorded at individual nests can predict offspring fitness and survival but few studies have examined these effects in the tropics. We recorded nestling survival, post-fledging survival and age at first return of Roseate Terns breeding at Aride Island, Seychelles, over a 12-year period (1998-2009). Nest data recorded at the egg, nestling and fledging stages were collected during six breeding seasons (1998, 2001-2005) and a capture-mark-recapture dataset of six cohorts of fledglings was obtained from 2001-2009. Logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive effect of reproductive variables on fledging success, while multistate capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate post-fledging survival and return-recruitment probabilities to the natal site. Nestling survival probability increased with earliness of laying and was negatively affected by tick infestation during the growth period (0-23 days). Fledging probability was also positively related to chick body condition, whereas other pre-fledging reproductive parameters such as clutch size and egg size were not influential. A multistate modelling of age-specific survival and return-recruitment (transition) rates found that first-year survival differed between cohorts and was also negatively affected by tick infestation. Annual survival stabilized from age 2 onwards at 0.83 +/- 0.02. Transition rates were positively related to body condition at fledging, with heavier individuals returning for the first time to the natal colony at a younger age compared with lighter individuals. These results highlight the importance of local conditions encountered by tropical seabirds during the breeding season in shaping demographic parameters.
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