La Tour du Valat

Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes

Titre :	Model comparison and assessment for multi-state capture-recapture-recovery models
Auteurs :	Rachel S. McCrea, Auteur ; Byron J. T. Morgan, Auteur ; Thomas Bregnballe, Auteur
Type de document :	Article
Dans :	Journal of Ornithology (152 FEB 2012)
Article en page(s) :	S293-S303
Langues:	Anglais
Résumé :	The work of this paper is motivated by a study of Great Cormorants, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis, in Denmark. The dataset is complex, involving birds in different states living in and moving between neighbouring colonies. As a consequence, the set of probability models that might describe the data is large. In order to choose between the models, we present a score test approach for moving efficiently between the members of a model set with many members. We then provide a new measure for testing the absolute goodness-of-fit of the selected model to the data. This measure may be used when a model is multi-state/multi-site, and involves age-and time-dependence, as well as integrated recovery and recapture data, which is needed for the application. An illustration is provided by data from a single colony only, but with two breeding states, and an additional emigrated state.

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