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Résumé :
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We assessed demographic rates and numbers of the globally threatened Sociable Lapwing Vanellus gregarius in central Kazakhstan from 2005 to 2012 to identify drivers of recent declines. Annual fecundity, estimated from a sample of over 1,000 nest histories, was highly variable. Nest survival was higher closer to human settlements, despite higher trampling rates, and when there were more neighbouring nests, but distance to settlements and colony density both varied systematically between years. Both overall nest survival and annual adult survival were on average lower than those estimated for congeneric species elsewhere, although daily chick survival was high. Breeding site fidelity and natal philopatry were low and colonies fluctuated greatly in size between years, making estimation of population trends and survival difficult. Estimates of productivity and survival suggest that the population is in slight to severe decline, with a mean annual estimate of population growth rate (lambda) of 0.81 (95 % CL 0.64-0.98). This is reflected in changes in the number of nests found in our core study area, which after 5 years of relative stability declined rapidly after 2010. Of the three demographic rates, adult survival had the greatest influence on lambda and only adult survival reached levels necessary for lambda to achieve an annual mean of 1 in the absence of a change in any other rate, though only in 1 year. Our results suggest that low adult survival, perhaps resulting from known hunting pressure along the migration routes, is the most critical demographic rate and offers the most tractable conservation solution.
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