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Résumé :
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A large number of wildlife reserves have been established throughout Europe to protect migratory waterbirds. However, there has been little evaluation of whether they are being managed sustainably. The Danish Wadden Sea became a wildlife reserve in 1979 to manage hunting and public access to the site. This paper evaluates whether waterbirds are being managed in a sustainable manner, using the definition that bird numbers over the years should be either: 1) regulated by factors independent of human activity, or 2) be at least stable. The hypothesis was tested for 17 waterbird species, using 194 counts made from aircraft between 1980 and 2000 inclusive. The TrendSpotter programme was used to examine trends in numbers. Regression analysis with autoregressive error correction was used to assess the association between four factors (population size indices, population breeding success, plant primary production and biomass of Blue Mussel Mytilus edulis) thought to be affecting the numbers of waterbirds using the site each year. The results showed increasing trends in spring for Brent Goose Branta bernicla, Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola and Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica, whereas numbers of Shelduck Tadorna tadorna, Pintail Anas acuta, Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus, Grey Plover, Curlew Numenius arquata and Common Gull Larus canus increased in autumn. Numbers of Brent Goose, Wigeon Anas penelope, Avocet Recurvirostra avocetta, Dunlin Calidris alpina, Bar-tailed Godwit, Black-headed Gun Larus ridibundus and Herring Gun L argentatus were all stable during autumn, as was Eider Somateria mollissima during winter. Mallard Anas platyrhynchos decreased during autumn, and the trends were uncertain for Teal Anas crecca and Knot Calidris canutus. Numbers of Brent Goose, Shelduck, Wigeon, Teal, Mallard and Avocet (during autumn) and Grey Plover (during spring) in the Danish Wadden Sea were correlated either with the population index, the breeding index or the primary production index. Thus numbers of seven species appear to be influenced by factors other than human activity in the Danish Wadden Sea, and the trends of 14 species were either stable or increasing. Moreover, for the five quarry species considered, numbers in the Danish Wadden Sea were either correlated with factors outside the area (Mallard, Pintail, Wigeon and Teal) or were stable despite a decrease in the total population size (Eider). Thus it is concluded that the wildlife reserve in the Danish Wadden Sea has been managed in a sustainable manner.
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