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Résumé :
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We use population viability analysis of an endangered Florida scrub mint, Dicerandra frutescens, to specify the optimal fire return intervals for its long-term persistence and for its specific habitat. We derived 83 population projection matrices from 13 years of demographic data from eight populations, 59 matrices from scrub populations and 24 from firelane or yard edges. Seed dormancy and germination transitions were inferred based on experimental data and verified by comparing modeled vs. observed population trajectories. Finite rates of increase in scrub sites were highest shortly after fire and declined steeply through 10 years postfire. The break-even value of lambda = 1 was passed quickly, in about six years, suggesting that populations > 6 years postfire were already facing decline. The decline is probably related to the rapid growth of competing shrubs in the habitat of D. frutescens. In long-unburned sites, finite rates of increase were nearly always 1 and
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