La Tour du Valat

Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes

Titre :	Projected population dynamics for a federally endangered plant under different climate change emission scenarios
Auteurs :	Brenda Molano-Flores, Auteur ; Timothy J. Bell, Auteur
Type de document :	Article
Dans :	Biological Conservation (145(1) JAN 2012)
Article en page(s) :	130-138
Langues:	Anglais
Résumé :	Land managers primarily collect population counts to track rare plant population trends. These count-based data sets are often used to develop population viability analysis (PVA) to project future status of these populations. Additionally, practitioners can use this count-based data to project population size changes under different climate change scenarios at both local and regional levels. In this study we developed a count-based PVA for a population of the US federally endangered Dalea foliosa, using annual census data (1997-2008), to determine extinction probability (P(e)) at 50 and 80 year time points. We determined which weather variables best explained variation in count data and population growth rate using linear regression. Lastly we projected population size for the population location at 50 and 80 years using forecasted temperature and precipitation from 16 climate change models under three emission scenarios. Count-based PVA indicated a P(e) of 0.2% at both 50 and 80 years. However, these estimates of P(e) have large confidence intervals, so persistence is not a certainty. Most variation in population size was explained by snowfall (R(2) = 0.786, p

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