La Tour du Valat

Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes

Titre :	Influence of whooping crane population dynamics on its recovery and management
Auteurs :	Matthew J. Butler, Auteur ; Grant Harris, Auteur ; Bradley N. Strobel, Auteur
Type de document :	Article
Dans :	Biological Conservation (162 JUN 2013)
Article en page(s) :	89-99
Langues:	Anglais
Résumé :	Wildlife populations experience periods of negative growth of varying magnitudes and duration. Understanding these dynamics and a population's sensitivity to them informs conservation planning, policy decisions, recovery criteria and management triggers, especially when management actions are expensive or risky. Therefore, to inform management and conservation of the only wild, migratory population of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana), we modeled its 73-year time-series of abundances and simulated future growth using Monte Carlo forecasting. We estimated the probability of the population reaching downlisting criteria. We used Monte Carlo simulation to examine this population's sensitivity to periods of negative growth (i.e., annual growth rate (r) = -0.025, -0.050, -0.100, or -0.150 for 1-3 consecutive years). We found this population exhibiting periodic declines on a 10-year cycle. We show it is unlikely to go extinct assuming conditions remain similar to the past. Our forecasts suggested the population will contain >400 birds by 2025. We found >= 3 consecutive years of r = 2 consecutive years of r

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