La Tour du Valat

Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes

Titre :	Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming (2018)
Auteurs :	Alessandro Dosio, Auteur ; Erich M. Fischer, Auteur
Type de document :	Article
Dans :	Geophysical Research Letters (45(2) January 2018)
Article en page(s) :	935-944
Langues:	Anglais
Mots-clés :	Europe ; Impact changement climatique ; Sécheresse ; Inondation ; Modèle ; Précipitation
Résumé :	Based on high-resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact-relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We speciﬁcally assess the robustness of the changes and the beneﬁts of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of ﬁxed-threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsigniﬁcant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall.
En ligne :	http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL076222

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