La Tour du Valat

Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes

Titre :	Sustainability. Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change (2015)
Auteurs :	Daniel Schindler, Auteur ; Ray Hilborn, Auteur
Type de document :	Article
Dans :	Science (347 February 27, 2015)
Article en page(s) :	953-4
Résumé :	A great deal of research to inform environmental conservation and management takes a predict-and-prescribe strategy in which improving forecasts about future states of ecosystems is the primary goal. But sufficiently thorough understanding of ecosystems needed to reduce deep uncertainties is probably not achievable, seriously limiting the potential effectiveness of the predict-and-prescribe approach. Instead, research should integrate more closely with policy development to identify the range of alternative plausible futures and develop strategies that are robust across these scenarios and responsive to unpredictable ecosystem dynamics.

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