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Résumé :
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The Turkestan Ground-Jay (Podoces panderi) is a desert-dwelling bird species endemic to Central Asia whose population and distribution have been significantly impacted by both natural and anthropogenic factors. In this study, we assessed population status, habitat preferences, and future distribution under various climate scenarios. We conducted surveys across 186 plots in the Kyzylkum Desert from 2021 to 2024, using the N-mixture and generalized additive models to estimate abundance and identify key environmental drivers. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling approach (Biomod2) with CMIP6 climate projections to forecast range shifts under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Results revealed low overall density (0.23–0.77 individuals/km²) with significant regional variability. Generalized linear models indicated that loose sands, dunes, and sandy soils supported higher densities, whereas specific vegetation types (low-density tall shrubs with dominant halophytes and xerophilous herbaceous plants) had significant negative effects on abundance. Ensemble models projected severe range contractions, particularly under high-emission scenarios (SSP585), with the loss of suitable habitats in the southeastern parts of the range by 2100. Conversely, some Western areas may have acted as refugees. The range of species has contracted notably since the mid-20th century and is driven by anthropogenic pressures. Our findings underscore the vulnerability of the Turkestan Ground-Jay to climate change and habitat loss, highlighting the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts to identify key habitats and ensure their long-term persistence.
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